Being a Liberal

"Being a Liberal means I care about my country; its people, its safety, its health, and its future. Being a Liberal means that I make choices with both compassion and reason; not out of bigotry, anger or ignorance. Being a Liberal means that I don't agree with all opinions, just in the right of each individual to hold their own. Being a Liberal means I care about the quality of life of the world around me and of the people in it. As a Liberal, I believe in a strong defense, the right of all to live a decent life and to prosper based on their own efforts. I believe in the power of a free people. I believe that people are generally good, but many governments are not. I believe in the welfare of my neighbors, not in a welfare state. I believe that a big government is neither bad nor good; but that government’s role is to serve as the arbitrator, protector, and vehicle for the common action of the nation. I am proud of my country, but believe America is a work in progress. We have a lot of work to do before we have it right. I am a Liberal and proud of it. And you can quote me on that. Kent Lowell Chaplin"

World Economic Perspective: Part I

Economic experts and financial pundits are calling current economic conditions – a harsh recession similar to that of the early 80’s. The average worker, investor, and retiree are calling it another “great depression.” There is truth in both perspectives. The world-wide financial collapse which began last summer appears to be coming to a slow but eventual end with the first stages of a recovery (stabilization and recovery of the lending markets) already started – at least in the U.S. That is not to say hard times are over or more bad news is not in the offing. In fact more bad news and business closures will certainly occur before this ends and unemployment, which always lags behind in any recovery, is likely to hit levels not seen in over a half century. All recessions in Post WWII America have ended the same way; with the return of the America consumer. And that critical event has yet to happen. But the conditions that started this crisis – the meltdown of the lending markets – do appear to have ended. The next phase will be a resumption of normal lending to businesses. How long it will take before the rest of the economy catches up and how much of the economic landscape will be left is the $100K question. It could be another year before the U.S. free fall stops and another 4 to 5 years before a full recovery occurs. Longer than that, if more economic pillars are toppled or the financial lending recovery stalls or is reversed.

A number of U.S. institutions and possibly even whole industries may fall be the way side before this recovery is completed. What we will see in the coming days is the loss of some venerable institutions, a realignment of others and the creation of new industries. Several of the mega banks will probably not weather the storm and will either be sold off in pieces or be swallowed up by their more adaptable and financially sound competitors. The American automobile industry will survive in one form or another but it will never be the same. A smaller Ford will probably return to private holdings and GM will be greatly reduced in size in order to return to profitability. Chrysler will most likely continue its decline and then quietly fold when FIAT is done with it. The same consolidation and downsizing will occur in a number of other industries including the U.S. defense industry which is about to hit hard times.

As far as the creation of new major industries, that will depend primarily on the recovery of the lending market and even more on the Federal government. If the Obama administration is able to create an atmosphere of stability and focus government funds into the establishment of a new energy industry as opposed to just subsidies, then the potential for America to lead in this area is high. There are plenty of opportunities where American technology, labor, and capital can be successfully refocused and energy is just one. It is important to remember that America continually re-invents itself and the situation we face today is intrinsically no different than other crisis this nation has faced.

The world is no longer the world it was 18 months ago and something new is still baking in the oven. What is clear is that the decades long spending spree of the American consumer, bankrolled by Chinese exports and Middle Eastern energy dollars has finally ended. America’s ability to hemorrhage billions of dollars in negative trade deficits was predicated on those dollars coming back into the U.S. in the form of investments and loans. The dollar and the U.S. economy no longer look like 24 karat gold and the fear by foreign investors of jumping off the merry-go-round is not as frightening as it once was since the ride has nearly stopped. The funding of the Second World’s economic development via U.S. investments and in some cases the actual funding of key government programs has also ended. The Icelands and Hungarys will not invest in Wall Street to the tune of billions again.

While the foundation for a U.S. recovery maybe in place, Europe, Latin America and Asia are another matter. Part II: Europe and the Economic Recovery.

Swine Flu Outbreak

April 27,2009

So far there are 1,663 suspected infections and 103 reported deaths. Nearly all of the infections and all of the deaths are in Mexico (98 percent of both have been in Mexico City itself). The high population density of Mexico City has allowed the new strain to spread very quickly and provided ample opportunities for it to be carried abroad. There are now suspected cases in Canada, New Zealand, Spain, France, Israel, Brazil and the United States.

It appears that we’re not dealing with a 1918 style pandemic. While there obviously have been deaths, the numbers don't indicate this is a particularly deadly disease. Something like the 1918 "Spanish Flu" virus would already be killing people in significant numbers in places as scattered as Singapore, Buenos Aires, and Moscow. It appears that this H1N1 strain is simply a new strain of the common flu that is somewhat more virulent. All evidence thus far indicates that a simple paper mask is effective at limiting transmission, and that common anti-viral medications such as Tamiflu and Relenza work well against the new strain.

But the biggest question is why have there been deaths in Mexico City and not anywhere else? The fact that the Mexican health system is subpar does not answer the question. Since most people do not seek medical treatment for flu symptoms, medical quality does not yet seriously enter into the picture. The explanation could be nothing more complicated than the fact that the strain first broke out in Mexico City and has not yet advanced far enough elsewhere to produce deaths. If that is the case then we should be seeing some terminal cases in the United States in the next few days.

So far the CDC does not have an opinion on this topic, but we need to discover if there is something fundamentally different about the situation — or the virus — in Mexico vis-a-vis the rest of the world.

Swine Flu Symptoms from the CDC

The following advice on the Swine Flu is from the Center for Disease Control (CDC)

If you live in areas where swine influenza cases have been identified and become ill with influenza-like symptoms, including fever, body aches, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, or vomiting or diarrhea, you may want to contact your health care provider, particularly if you are worried about your symptoms. Your health care provider will determine whether influenza testing or treatment is needed.

If you are sick, you should stay home and avoid contact with other people as much as possible to keep from spreading your illness to others.

If you become ill and experience any of the following warning signs, seek emergency medical care.

In children emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

• Fast breathing or trouble breathing
• Bluish skin color
• Not drinking enough fluids
• Not waking up or not interacting
• Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held
• Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough
• Fever with a rash

In adults, emergency warning signs that need urgent medical attention include:

• Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
• Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
• Sudden dizziness
• Confusion
• Severe or persistent vomiting

Pirates you say? Part 2

As I mentioned before, there have been only two methods for successfully dealing with pirates and they have been employed in varying degrees for thousands of years - pay em off (tribute) or eradicate them (military action). Neither is cheap and both always have unintended consequences. Tribute runs the risk of creating more pirates elsewhere and/or creating a beast that can cause more trouble - the Principality of Monaco is an example of the latter. In the case of the Somali pirates the issue with tribute is both the danger of encouraging copycats elsewhere (like the Caribbean where cruise ship could be targeted) and the threat of some of the funds winding up in the hands of Islamic terrorists. We have seen Afghan drug money fuel the Taliban and al Qaeda for years now and no one is quite sure if Somali pirate money is not making its way into such coffers. Terrorists, it seems, have no qualms taking money from criminals and vice versa. So that leaves eradication in Part 3.

NATO seizes captured ship but frees the pirates

Yesterday Dutch commandos freed 20 fishermen whose vessel was hijacked by Somali pirates and used to launch an attack against a tanker in the Gulf of Aden. They seized weapons but let the pirates go. According to a NATO spokesman, the pirates were set free because NATO does not have a maritime detainment policy, meaning Dutch national law would apply in this case. "The Dutch force can only arrest them if the pirates are from the Netherlands, the victims are from the Netherlands, or if they are in Netherlands waters." US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently unveiled a plan to tackle piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean off Somalia. Too bad she didn't include NATO in the process. This just goes to show that despite an official NATO mission there is yet to be any type of integrated planning. Until this happens the whole multi-national flotilla will be about as effective in deterring pirates as the US Border Patrol is in stemming illegal immigration - no disrespect to the Border Patrol. The international law is in place, forces are in place, but the planning and coordination is missing. It raises questions if the will is really there. As a military planner and former commander, I can assure you the quickest way to fail in any operation is to short change planning. I feel for the troops sent on this fools errand without the authorization to act decisively and responsibly.

Pirates you say?

Pirates have been around as long as we have been traveling on rivers and seas. Like slavery, piracy is an economic driven enterprise that thrives in areas that have little to no state presence or has a state sponsor who see their activities as both profitable and politically expedient. The naval flotillas plying the waters off the Horn of Africa will have no significant effect on curbing piracy. There are too many ships to escort, too wide an area to patrol and too few armed assets to do the job. Arming cargo ships will run into legal, liability, and safety issues. It also will be minimally effective considering the income made at pirating. Arming cargo ships will likely result in only a stalemate and an arms race between the pirates and commercial ships. Think about the drug trade and the international success to suppress it in areas where there is little stability or law enforcement. To end piracy in the Red and Arabian seas will require draining the swamps in the geographic territory known as Somalia. That will entail more than just going ashore and burning out a few pirate dens. There is big money in it for the locals and unless you establish security followed by a viable economy they will spring back about as fast as you can get out of port. Good news is that the skills and talent for nation building, and that is what we are talking about, are well known and available. Bad news is that it will take at least a decade and tens of billions to do it and no one wants to foot the bill or contribute the forces. The ship owners are content to limit the liability by insuring their ships and cargo's. The insurance company are willing, at least at the moment, to endure the losses. When the pirating goes beyond the tolerance level of either the ship owners or insurance companies then some action will take place. There are only two tried and true methods for dealing with piracy and it is not arming merchant ships. Both methods have been used with varying degrees of success by nations around the world, including the US, for millennia. More to follow.