Swine Flu Outbreak

April 27,2009

So far there are 1,663 suspected infections and 103 reported deaths. Nearly all of the infections and all of the deaths are in Mexico (98 percent of both have been in Mexico City itself). The high population density of Mexico City has allowed the new strain to spread very quickly and provided ample opportunities for it to be carried abroad. There are now suspected cases in Canada, New Zealand, Spain, France, Israel, Brazil and the United States.

It appears that we’re not dealing with a 1918 style pandemic. While there obviously have been deaths, the numbers don't indicate this is a particularly deadly disease. Something like the 1918 "Spanish Flu" virus would already be killing people in significant numbers in places as scattered as Singapore, Buenos Aires, and Moscow. It appears that this H1N1 strain is simply a new strain of the common flu that is somewhat more virulent. All evidence thus far indicates that a simple paper mask is effective at limiting transmission, and that common anti-viral medications such as Tamiflu and Relenza work well against the new strain.

But the biggest question is why have there been deaths in Mexico City and not anywhere else? The fact that the Mexican health system is subpar does not answer the question. Since most people do not seek medical treatment for flu symptoms, medical quality does not yet seriously enter into the picture. The explanation could be nothing more complicated than the fact that the strain first broke out in Mexico City and has not yet advanced far enough elsewhere to produce deaths. If that is the case then we should be seeing some terminal cases in the United States in the next few days.

So far the CDC does not have an opinion on this topic, but we need to discover if there is something fundamentally different about the situation — or the virus — in Mexico vis-a-vis the rest of the world.